Jumat, 31 Oktober 2014

# PDF Ebook Supervolcano: Things Fall Apart, by Harry Turtledove

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Supervolcano: Things Fall Apart, by Harry Turtledove

An explosion of incalculable magnitude in Yellowstone Park propelled lava and ash across the landscape and into the atmosphere, forever altering the climate of the entire continent. Nothing grows from the tainted soil. Stalled and stilled machines function only as statuary.
 
People have been scraping by on the excess food and goods produced before the eruption. But supplies are running low. Natural resources are dwindling. And former police officer Colin Ferguson knows that time is running out for his family—and for humanity....

  • Sales Rank: #418397 in eBooks
  • Published on: 2013-12-03
  • Released on: 2013-12-03
  • Format: Kindle eBook

Review
Praise for the Supervolcano Trilogy:

“[Turtledove] treats this massive disaster in a realistic fashion, creating a world that tries to limp along in the aftermath of the greatest blow nature has ever struck against modern man. The events of the story feel possible, in terms of both science and society.”—The Maine Edge

“I am enjoying this series. It walks the line between alternate history and near future ecothriller.”—SF Revu

“Series fans and readers who clamor for ‘disaster’ novels should enjoy this ongoing chronicle of a possible future.”—Library Journal

About the Author
Harry Turtledove, the New York Times bestselling author of The Guns of the South, Ruled Britannia, the Atlantis Trilogy (Opening Atlantis, The United States of Atlantis, Liberating Atlantis), and the Supervolcano Trilogy (Supervolcano: Eruption, Supervolcano: All Fall Down) has a PhD in Byzantine history. Nominated for the Nebula Award, he has won the Hugo, Sidewise, and John Esthen Cook Awards.

Most helpful customer reviews

38 of 41 people found the following review helpful.
The Young, the Restless, and the Very Cold
By Stephen
Almost ten years ago, a supervolcano under Yellowstone National Park erupted, vaporizing dozens and poisoning millions as it covered the west with ash and the atmosphere with dust. As years without a summer become a decade without a summer, the odds that the planet is slipping into another ice age rise, but all this is merely the backdrop to another episode about the Ferguson family, that venerable clan of dysfunctionals. Plot? Well, the father of the Fergusons is shot and retires; his ex-wife begins dating again; his oldest son has an affair with a married woman and is dumped by her after she realizes his selling one short story to Playboy doesn't make a career; his daughter tries to sell a story, but can't, even after she is also dumped by her Serbian freedom-fighting truck driving boyfriend; and his two younger sons have wives and are quite cold in Nebraska and Maine, respectively. Into these not-quite-so-gripping character dramas readers are treated to the glacial creep of change as people adopt to the new way of living: they use typewriters, because electricity is spastic, and they bicycle to work.

This is less science fiction and more soap opera: "The Young, the Restless, and the Very Cold". To be fair, Turtledove never writes a lot of plot; his method is to throw a dozen or so characters into Some Big Event and see their personal drama combine with it and interesting ways -- think of a German tank commander and a Soviet lady pilot becoming allies, for instance, in the Worldwar series -- or the love/hate relationship between Potter and Featherson in the Timeline-191 series. But in Supervolcano, there's no BIg Event happening: or rather, it HAPPENED in book one. The consequences are slow to be borne out, so all the reader is left with "As the World Turn....into an Ice Age". If you want science fiction, this isn't it; if you want a post-apocalyptic thriller, this isn't it; if you want love stories, this isn't it; but if you want characters eating oatmeal and taking showers and getting dumped while it's snowing outside, then you're in luck.

11 of 12 people found the following review helpful.
Nothing happens, and it's told in a very boring way.
By Duchess of Gadsden
First off, I am normally a huge fan of Harry Turtledove. I have liked other novels he's written and it's hard to believe that a writer of his caliber could turn out something this mediocre.

First off, there's hardly a likeable character in the bunch. Colin Ferguson, the cop, is a knee-jerk conservative who hasn't a good thing to say or even think about almost anything or anyone. Vanessa, his incredibly selfish and self-centered daughter is sort of a knee-jerk liberal except that she shares her father's disdain for virtually everything. The ex-wife likewise is completely incapable of thinking that others are feeling human beings. The two sons are the only characters who actually grow and change over the course of the novel.

Another problem is that on almost every single page, every single character is complaining about how cold it is, the rain in LA or the nearly year-round snow elsewhere. Also, on nearly every single page the fact that electricity in many places is iffy, there are shortages of all sorts of things, and these days they have to walk, ride a bike, or take a bus (Oh, the horror!) to get anywhere. All of the busses are always late. Never is a bus on time. Gosh. I've been a bus rider and most of the time my experience was that the busses were on time. But not in this version of life. And every single character who has to ride the bus complains bitterly, apparently expecting that the service should be swift and wonderful.

In this book Turtledove doesn't trust his readers to recall any plot points for more than three pages, because over and over and over again he reminds us of something that happened a while back. Which is one reason nothing really happens. And very rarely is anything actually shown in the way a piece of fiction should be showing. It is almost all telling. Which is why it's rather boring.

Another problem is that it's honestly difficult to keep track of the time that is passing, since he almost never gives any kind of dates. Next thing you know another year has passed, or suddenly the little girl is walking, then talking, then it's mentioned that soon she'll start school. It's a bit disorienting.

By the end, I was sincerely hoping that everyone would freeze to death.

9 of 10 people found the following review helpful.
A Heroic Effort
By Mick McAllister
I'm trying to imagine how Supervolcano could have been made more boring. Nothing comes to mind. This is Vol. 3, with at least one more in the works. As near as i can tell, the author set out to demonstrate that destroying half the country and inaugurating a new Ice Age could be less interesting that episodes of Ozzie and Harriet set in Turku. It's a tough challenge, but he did it.

Twelve hundred pages. Recall the old saw that warfare is long periods of boredom punctuated by instants of stark terror? Turtledove doesn't believe in punctuation.

In Book 1, the Yellowstone volcano blows. Ten pages of running like Hell, and then 200 pages of getting to know a dysfunctional family that you really wish you hadn't. Oh, there's a serial killer, but he/she has nothing to do with the plot and nothing really happens except that he/she (avoiding spoilers) kills a few people. Oh, and a middle-aged lady gets pregnant. Woohoo.

Book 2, nothing happens. I mean, really, nothing. People in LA endure the hardship of not having reliable Internet service or fresh bananas. There's a moment of potential when an extremely unlikeable character encounters a survivalist enclave in the middle of devastated and uninhabitable Kansas (Is that redundant?), but it's Ok, they only are on stage long enough to take a potshot at our heroine, who skedaddles. End of plot thread. Meanwhile, her brother continues to hunt moose in Maine. Then a caffeine jolt: Turtledove gets tired of the serial killer thread so he tells us who the killer is -- totally from left field.

Book 3, unlikeable heroine gets ripped off by Balkan terrorist boyfriend who turns out to have hacker skills. Who knew? Everybody gets older... like the story. Main character gets shot and applies for pension. Pension comes. Stay tuned.

Not me.

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  • Sales Rank: #1703429 in eBooks
  • Published on: 2013-04-18
  • Released on: 2013-03-25
  • Format: Kindle eBook

Most helpful customer reviews

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A concise, pocket-sized nursing reference, Clinical Companion for Fundamentals of Nursing: Just the Facts, 8th Edition provides quick access to all of the information you'll need to know in your clinicals. A streamlined format organizes content by body system, using tables, boxes and bulleted lists to simplify lookup. From definitions and abbreviations to dosage calculations and lab values, this pocket guide presents the most up-to-date guidelines and clinical information in a popular, quick-reference format!

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    • Sales Rank: #726119 in eBooks
    • Published on: 2013-04-11
    • Released on: 2013-04-11
    • Format: Kindle eBook

    About the Author
    Patricia A. Potter, RN, MSN, PhD, FAAN, Director of Research, Patient Care Services Barnes-Jewish Hospital St. Louis, MO

    Anne Griffin Perry, RN, EdD, FAAN, Professor and Associate Dean, School of Nursing, Southern Illinois University, Edwardsville, IL

    Patricia Stockert, RN, BSN, MS, PhD, President of the College, Saint Francis Medical Center College of Nursing, Peoria, IL

    Amy Hall, RN, BSN, MS, PhD, CNE, Chair and White Family Endowed Professor of Nursing, Dunigan Family Department of Nursing and Health Sciences, University of Evansville, Evansville, IN

    Veronica Peterson, BA, RN, BSN, MS, Manager of Clinical Support, University of Wisconsin Medical Foundation; Adjunct Clinical Instructor, University of Wisconsin School of Nursing, Madison, WI

    Most helpful customer reviews

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    By Rclark
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    In the many fields beginning to use mathematics widely (business, biology, the social and political science, for example) a knowledge of statistics has become almost as imperative as the ability to read and write. This useful volume promises to be the salvation of those who, despite a distaste for math, need to use statistics in their work. Approaching the topic through logic and common sense rather than via complex mathematics, the author introduces the principle and applications of statistics, and teaches his reader to extract truth and draw valid conclusions from numerical data.
    An indispensable first chapter warns the reader on the ways he can be misled by numbers, and the ways in which numbers are used to misrepresent the truth (arithmetical errors, false percentages, fictitious precision, incomplete data, faulty comparisons, improper sampling, failure to allow for the effect of chance and misleading presentation). There follows a wealth of information on probability, sampling, averages and scatter, the design of investigations, significance tests — all presented in terms of specific, carefully worked out cases that make them both interesting and immediately understandable to the layman. The book is so entertaining, so eminently practical, that you'll gain expertise in the laws of chance, probability formulae, sampling methods, calculating the arithmetic mean and standard deviation, finding the geometric and the logarithmic mean, constructing an effective experiment or investigation using statistics, and a wide range of tests determining significance (zM test, X2 text, runs test for randomness and a number of others) and scores of other important skills — in a form so palatable you'll hardly realize how much you are learning, Scores of tables illustrate the text, and a complete table of squares and square roots is provided for your convenience. A handy guide to significance tests helps you to choose the test valid and appropriate for your data with speed and ease.
    Written with humor, clarity, and eminent good sense by a scientist of international reputation, this book is for anyone who wants to dispel the mystery of the numbers that pervade modern life, from news articles to literary criticism. For the biologist, sociologist, experimental psychologist or anyone whose profession requires the handling of a large mass of data, it will be of incalculable value.

    • Sales Rank: #509145 in eBooks
    • Published on: 2013-04-26
    • Released on: 2013-04-26
    • Format: Kindle eBook

    Most helpful customer reviews

    54 of 54 people found the following review helpful.
    If you only own one statistics book...
    By A Customer
    If you only own one statistics book, this should be it! In than 20 years of working with laypeople, engineering and biology undergraduates and grad. students and medical students, this has proven to be the most reliable, intelligible and accessible single volume on how to treat experimental and observational data in a sound, statistically valid, way. Of particular value is a table in the back (Guide to Significance Tests) which takes a "leaf identification" approach to selection of the most appropriate test. Many good examples and problems with solutions makes this an excellent self study text.
    Jonathan Black, Professor Emeritus, Clemson University.

    32 of 33 people found the following review helpful.
    Simple, clear, and hard-working
    By wiredweird
    Maybe you're just getting started as a stats user, maybe you're only an occasional user who doesn't want to relearn the whole field just to get quick answers. In either case, this book might be one of the best around.
    The first half of the book is background: a little probability, a little bit about sampling and experimental design, a little about the most basic and common statistics (means, quartiles, etc).
    The second half of the book offers a number of basic parametric and non-parametric significance tests. Langley describes each one, when it is applicable, and how to perform the calculations. He doesn't stray far into the slick computing tricks of the pre-calculator days, so the structure of each calculation stays reasonably clear.
    The only real weakness in this book is its lack of index. That is especially incovenient because the tables, a staple of most stats books, are interleaved with the text. The table of contents is descriptive, but doesn't replace an index. The other problem, and not really a flaw in the book, is that it's easy to outgrow this text. Even moderately heavy stats users need a bit more theory and background, to allow meaningful adaptation to new conditions. The author has chosen an audience, though, and has addressed that audience and its needs very well. If your skills are beyond those of the intended reader, that's not a fault of the book.
    Basic, clear, and reasonably broad - it's everything that an ordinary, casual stat user could want.

    24 of 24 people found the following review helpful.
    Lives up to its title
    By Amazon Customer
    This book is really written to be useful practically, and in that sense it is very successful. It is also written very concisely, so it is likely that it will clear many doubts. However, there are almost no theoretical explanations at all. In this sense, it is not a book that contributes to the theoretical understanding of statistics; so don't expect to know more about theory of statistics using this book; instead get ``Principles of Statistics" by M.G.Bulmer. This is a book to keep on the desk to help do practical statistical calculations and make inferences.

    See all 11 customer reviews...

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    Minggu, 26 Oktober 2014

    > Ebook Getting to Grips with Asperger Syndrome: Understanding Adults on the Autism Spectrum, by Carol Hagland

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    Getting to Grips with Asperger Syndrome: Understanding Adults on the Autism Spectrum, by Carol Hagland

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    Getting to Grips with Asperger Syndrome: Understanding Adults on the Autism Spectrum, by Carol Hagland

    Getting to Grips with Asperger Syndrome is a practical, problem-solving guide for those caring for or supporting an adult with Asperger Syndrome (AS). It will help them understand the condition and the difficulties it may cause, so that they can offer support in the most beneficial way.

    The book explains what AS is and why certain behaviours frequently occur: such as anxiety, fear of change and unusual sensitivities. Once behaviours and reactions are understood, many of the apparent problems become less troublesome, and difficulties can be avoided or easily-resolved. Practical strategies are offered to combat problems that may arise, and common issues that specifically occur with individuals diagnosed later in life are addressed.

    Easy-to-read and accessible, this book is a useful reference for friends and family of individuals with AS, as well as health and social care staff and students, whatever the level of training and experience.

    • Sales Rank: #1816609 in eBooks
    • Published on: 2009-09-15
    • Released on: 2009-09-15
    • Format: Kindle eBook

    Review
    The success of this book is truly in the author's ability to convey in each chapter what Asperger Syndrome may look like on a day to day basis... In a remarkable way, the author is describing and illustrating the most insignificant and potentially trivial daily issues all of us encounter by through the eyes of the individual with Asperger Syndrome which transform these circumstances and situations into a true and rather different challenge... The book would be very useful and helpful to parents and other family members, educators and Para-professionals. A very well written, easy to read and rooted in reality exposure book that sheds light on the population of adults with AS which at times get forgotten. -- Journal of Autism Developmental Disorders

    About the Author
    Carol Hagland worked as a chartered clinical psychologist in the NHS for over thirty years - the last ten being in the field of learning disabilities. During that time she developed a particular interest in Asperger Syndrome, and worked with many clients and their families or carers, providing diagnoses, counselling and advice about care and support.

    Most helpful customer reviews

    1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
    Worth It
    By Blitz Lyter
    Amazing book for anyone trying to understand, whether it be a family member or friend or simply you trying to learn about yourselves. I haven't read the whole book but it has a great deal, the history of the disorder, the characteristics (The section I was most interested in) and I'm sure it has more informative and fascinating information. Definitely worth buying.

    1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
    I did read this whole book
    By evie
    I liked that there was a lot of clear instructions and references to help learn more. This book is not meeting the adult persons needs to learn how to handle life now that they have discovered where the seat of their life long problems lies. However it does seem most helpful to the parent of a child or teenager who has just been diagnosed.

    10 of 15 people found the following review helpful.
    Easy-to-read and stress-free reading stuff!
    By edrm
    I bet this book is right for those who want to know what adults in Asperger's(AS)! Do you want to know why? That's mainly because the author seems to pay careful attention to conciseness. For Aspergians(people with AS), it can be really distressing to multitask; that is, Long and complicated remarks easily can easily distract them because of their shorter attention spans. I suppose this is the crucial reason that many of them have ADHD(Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder). Especially, I was really intrigued by the chapter named Difficulties with Understanding, which convinced me a great deal. In this chapter, Carol Hagland suggests that shorter and concise instructions and requests come before longer and complicated ones and why. And I would say she wrote this book in plain sentences so the readers can easily absorb what is written there. I really find it realistic and efficient to deal with such plain written materials for even neurotypicals as well as Aspergians in order to avoid confusion. Therefore, I would like to recommend this book to those who have never known about AS before!

    See all 4 customer reviews...

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    Kamis, 23 Oktober 2014

    ! Download PDF The Age of Oversupply: Overcoming the Greatest Challenge to the Global Economy, by Daniel Alpert

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    The Age of Oversupply: Overcoming the Greatest Challenge to the Global Economy, by Daniel Alpert

    The invisible hand of capitalism is broken. Economic and political forces are preventing markets from correcting themselves, and we're now living in an unprecedented age of oversupply.

    Governments and central banks across the developed world have tried every policy tool imaginable, yet our economies remain sluggish or worse. How

    did we get here, and how can advanced nations compete and prosper once more?


    In this bold call to arms, economic policy expert Daniel Alpert argues that a global labor glut, excess productive capacity, and a rising ocean of cheap capital have kept the economies of the first world, and notably the United States, mired in underemployment and anemic growth.


    Distracted by a technology boom and a massive debt bubble in the 1990s and early 2000s, advanced nations failed to assess the ultimate impact of the torrent of labor and capital unleashed by formerly socialist economies. After the financial crisis of 2008, the United States and Europe joined an already sclerotic Japan in dire economic straits. Today, as the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) and others poach jobs from Western Europe, the United States, and Japan, household incomes in the developed world continue to decline. 

    Many policymakers believe in outdated supplyside economic remedies. They miss the connection between global oversupply and the lack of domestic investment and growth. But Alpert shows how they are intertwined: We cannot understand the housing bubble and the financial crisis without appreciating how the rise of the emerging nations distorted the economies of rich countries. And we can’t chart a path for growth in the developed world without recognizing that many of these distorting forces are still at work.


    The Age of Oversupply offers a bold, fresh approach to fixing the West’s economic woes through large-scale fiscal stimulus measures, investments in infrastructure, and an aggressive private debt reduction plan. It also delivers a vigorous challenge to proponents of austerity economics.

    • Sales Rank: #599148 in eBooks
    • Published on: 2013-09-26
    • Released on: 2013-09-26
    • Format: Kindle eBook

    From Booklist
    Alpert, banker and progressive think-tank fellow, contends that the central challenge facing the global economy is the “oversupply of labor, productive capacity, and capital relative to the demand for all three.” We learn that restarting growth is blocked by oversupply, which is here to stay, and the author offers his guidelines for avoiding a future of economic stagnation and new crises. Amid his valuable insights, the author’s analysis of oversupply of cheap global labor is instructive. He cites a 2012 McKinsey study estimating that from 1980 to 2010, 1.7 billion new workers, mostly from emerging nations, were added to the global labor force, competing with workers in the U.S. where full-time unemployment remains high. With demand for goods and services “muted” since the 2008 financial debacle, the author reports that even the most profitable companies see little reason to invest in new equipment or hire new workers. Although not all will agree with Alpert, his ideas will contribute to important ongoing debates on the global economy. --Mary Whaley

    Review
    “Alpert does a magnificent job of analyzing the deeper underlying causes of our economic troubles.”

    —Liaquat Ahamed, author of Lords of Finance

    “A fascinating new book.”

    —Martin Wolf, The Financial Times

    About the Author
    DANIEL ALPERT is founding managing partner of investment bank Westwood Capital, LLC. He is widely quoted in the business media and was featured in the Academy Award-winning documentary Inside Job. Alpert is also a fellow in economics of the Century Foundation, the United States’ oldest policy think tank. He lives in New York.

    Most helpful customer reviews

    59 of 61 people found the following review helpful.
    Poor title, fun book
    By Athan
    A better title for the book would have been "Everything Daniel Alpert understands about the world economy."

    The author is educated, informed, open-minded and appears extremely well-read. Also, significantly, he comes with no ideological baggage and no axe to grind. This is really what he thinks. He is not advocating a bunch of solutions that would make him better off or advance his status in his field or anything like that.

    He identifies "oversupply" as the biggest problem we face at the moment. In short, there's a good billion people in the world who have joined the world economy but they are prone to save rather than spend. The governments of their countries invest the proceeds of their sweat in providing credit to the west, which then spends the borrowed money on the goods they make.

    This is not controversial. Bernanke discussed the global glut of savings in 2005, a full eight years before this book came out. What is controversial is that the author thinks this is the most important thing happening right now on the planet. Maybe he's right, but if he is he should discuss why in the book. The book's opening chapter goes a long way toward establishing this problem of oversupply, but that's it.

    Then the book becomes a laundry list of often very interesting things the author has figured out for himself through reading books and papers and through discussing with people he knows.

    In no particular order, the author (among many other things):

    1. Does his own version of Krugman's "End this Depression Now"
    2. Explains very persuasively that Quantitative Easing is past its sell-by date
    3. Bravely criticizes the Rubin/Summers/Clinton success with the deficit as serendipitous and the conclusions that stem from it as misguided
    4. Summarizes damn well what's wrong with the Eurozone
    5. Obliterates the libertarian / tea party / plutocratic view as self-serving
    6. Explains that printed dollars are far from worthless (the IRS won't take pesos)

    Also, he provides a list of proposals to help the US economy:

    1. The government should urgently invest borrowed money to upgrade the dilapidated infrastructure.
    2. Medical care reform should focus on resolving the split between those who pay and those who benefit.
    3. Education reform should tackle the mounting student debt.
    4. The bankruptcy taboo should be broken when dealing with banks. We need more, controlled, Lehmans.

    So there you have it. None of the solutions really relate to the alleged main theme of the book, which is oversupply.

    I sympathize IMMENSELY with the author, because he spares no punches. Nobody who is remotely partisan in nature will finish this book feeling like he did not get attacked at some point. But the main thesis is not developed adequately. Here in the UK the manufacturing industry was hollowed out in the 1970's, in the US in the 1990's and everywhere else in the west somewhere in between. China did not do this. US debt has been rising for decades, in a process (and with consequences) outlined by economists from Fischer to Minsky with no help required from the developing nations. The problem of poor demand (the mirror image of oversupply) was first linked to capitalism more than a century ago by Hobson.

    For this book to be a significant addition, it needs to go beyond what others have done, and this it fails to do. There is no "inventive step" here, no new addition to the body of knowledge.

    More to the point, we refer to 2007- today as the "financial crisis." When I picked up a book with the title "The Age of Oversupply" I was expecting the author to tell me why this is not a financial crisis, why it was something else, and I would expect among his proposals a way to tackle oversupply.

    I learned tons of things reading this book and I gained an appreciation of the author as a very intelligent and reasonable man, but I've found absolutely nothing here I did not already know about oversupply and how to deal with it. Indeed, I found the "anti-mercantilist" bits of the book to be the most poorly argued points made in these 255 pages.

    Regardless, this was informational, entertaining and educational.

    53 of 58 people found the following review helpful.
    Important, Data-Based Thinking
    By Loyd Eskildson
    Investment banker Albert contends that one can't understand the housing bubble and financial crisis without understanding how emerging nations distorted economies of rich countries. The central challenge facing the global economy is an oversupply of labor, productive capacity, and capital. A November Bain & Company study observed: 'The rate of growth of world output of goods and services has seen an extended slowdown over recent decades, while the volume of global financial assets (worldwide assets in the shadow banking system grew from $26 trillion in 2002 to $62 trillion in 2007) has expanded at a rapid pace.'

    In the late 1990s, cheap money began flooding the global economy, much of it coming from Asia as China and other ran huge trade surpluses and their rising middle classes and thriving corporations socked away savings. Easy credit set the stage for the real estate bubble and the financial crisis, allowed Americans to sustain a high standard of living with low-cost borrowing and ignore their declining competitiveness amid a growing surplus of global labor.

    China blocked free conversion of its currency to preserve competitiveness and by year-end 2012 held over $3.3 trillion in foreign-currency reserves - mostly dollars. Its currency reserves totaled less than $250 billion in 2000. China's national savings rate grew from 37% in 1988 to 48% in 2005 to 53% of GDP in 2011. The U.S. rate is about 12%, Japan's now under 25%. At the same time, Brazil's reserves went from $33 billion in 2000 to $352 billion in 2011, Indonesia's reserves grew 5X, Saudi Arabia's from $21 billion to $595 billion (28X). Overall, foreign-currency reserves of emerging nations rose from around $700 billion in 2000 to nearly $7 trillion in 2012. Several export powerhouses in the developed world also piled up more cash - Japan's reserves tripled during the first decade of the 21st century, to over $1 trillion, and Germany's and South Korea's nearly tripled. During this same period, U.S. federal debt doubled to $10 trillion during the Bush presidency, and has since risen further to about $16 trillion, with foreign governments owning almost half of this debt.

    U.S. state and local governments also took advantage of cheap money, borrowing over $1 trillion between 2000 and 2008.

    Today the world has a market labor force of about three billion people, many in a position to compete directly for a wide range of jobs held by workers in the developed world. Nearly half live in China, India, and the former Soviet Union - doubling the free-market global labor supply in the last two decades. Indonesia, Brazil, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Mexico, and Vietnam have more recently brought another 450 million workers. Because many of these workers live in countries with insufficient social safety nets and pensions, they save far more than their counterparts in developed nations and haven't generated near the demand one might think.

    There has also been a recent flood of more educated workers. In China alone, students graduating annually from college has risen 8X in the past 15 years, from 830,000 in 1998 to 6.8 million in 2012. In India, there were 390,000 Indian students in universities, not 1.5 million.

    Oversupply is here to stay and a central obstacle to restarting growth. Cheaper credit through monetary easing doesn't yield much when cheap capital is already abundant. Major risks linger in banking sectors of the U.S. and Europe because reforms have not gone nearly far enough. Finally, the U.S. and Europe have a huge overhang of unresolved debt - on a scale no nation has ever before confronted.

    Nearly half of China's population still live in the countryside, able and wanting to shift into more productive activities. An Asian Development Bank study estimates China's labor force will continue to grow until after 2020. India has an even bigger pool of untapped labor - 69% of its fast-growing population still live in rural areas, and half of all Indians are under 25. It's been estimated that 275 million new workers will enter India's labor force between 2000 and 2030. Indonesia's labor force is growing by 2 million a year, the Philippines is adding a million/year.

    Alpert suggests a $1.2 trillion, five-year public investment program of infrastructure improvements to restart growth and lay the foundation for future prosperity - addition to the approximately $1 trillion already budgeted. (A recent World Economic Forum report ranks the U.S. #16 in quality of infrastructure.) A second recommendation - an aggressive effort to clear away unresolved debt. (Net debt can be reduced by increasing savings, but Keynes' paradox of thrift tells us that if both consumers and governments simultaneously spend less and save more, GDP will simply contract and the debt continue to be unsustainable.) Further banking reforms are needed to reduce risky behaviors and boost stability (eg. less leverage). (Household debt climbed from 59% of 1996 GDP to 99% in the first quarter of 2009, while financial sector debt rose from 59% of GDP to 123%.

    The U.S. has two additional obstacles - runaway costs for higher education and health care. (U.S. healthcare is the world's most expensive, by far - consuming 18% of GDP vs. #2 Switzerland at 12%, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan at 8%, and Singapore at 4%). Alpert offers suggestions for these problems as well.

    Meanwhile, almost 70% of jobs created in Q2 2013 and 60% of all jobs in the first half of 2013 were created in the three lowest-wage sub-sectors (eg. hamburger flippers, barmaids, temps, garbage men, and Walmart associates) of the economy, paying an average of only $15.80/hour, about $3/hour vs. unemployment etc. benefits. Further, about half these jobs have been part-time jobs. Inflation-adjusted wages have been falling for nearly 15 years, yet equities are on a 'sugar high.'

    Bottom-Line: Alpert's book directly confronts the 250-year-old ideas of Adam Smith, developed in an era of global undersupply with very limited international trade. Serious and complex issues have recently resulted from erroneously continuing to believe 'invisible hands' will solve today's problems of oversupply in an age of massive international trade via uncoordinated and largely unregulated actions of selfish individuals and firms. 'Fighting the last war is not a path to success' - that's what got us into this mess.

    4 of 5 people found the following review helpful.
    Important book, but maybe the wrong solution.
    By John Nagle
    It only takes about 17% of the US workforce to make all the physical stuff - that's agriculture, construction, manufacturing, and mining combined. There are no major shortages of any buyable thing in the developed world. It's a great achievement. That never happened before in all of history. This ought to be great. It's not working out. So what's wrong?

    As Alpert points out, because it doesn't take that many people to make all the stuff, there's not enough personal income to buy all the stuff. Alpert thinks the problem is oversupply, not lack of personal income. In some sense, this is backwards, but it's traditional economic thinking.

    Alpert sees the right problem. His proposed solutions aren't too helpful, but at least he's on the right problem. Piketty's "Capital" doesn't get this at all.

    See all 53 customer reviews...

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    Rabu, 22 Oktober 2014

    ** Ebook Download A Potion to Die For: A Magic Potion Mystery, by Heather Blake

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    A Potion to Die For: A Magic Potion Mystery, by Heather Blake

    TROUBLE IS BREWING…

    As the owner of Little Shop of Potions, a magic potion shop specializing in love potions, Carly Bell Hartwell finds her product more in demand than ever. A local soothsayer has predicted that a couple in town will soon divorce—and now it seems every married person in Hitching Post, Alabama, wants a little extra matrimonial magic to make sure they stay hitched.

    But when Carly finds a dead man in her shop, clutching one of her potion bottles, she goes from most popular potion person to public enemy number one. In no time the murder investigation becomes a witch hunt—literally! Now Carly is going to need to brew up some serious sleuthing skills to clear her name and find the real killer—before the whole town becomes convinced her potions really are to die for!

    • Sales Rank: #66458 in eBooks
    • Published on: 2013-11-05
    • Released on: 2013-11-05
    • Format: Kindle eBook

    Review
    "Prepare to be enchanted by the Magic Potion mysteries!"—Ellery Adams

    Praise for Heather Blake’s Wishcraft Mysteries:

    “Blending magic, romance, and mystery, this is a charming story.” —New York Times bestselling author Denise Swanson

    “Sparkling dialogue, colorful characters, and a clever plot!” —Casey Daniels, author of Supernatural Born Killers

    “Blake successfully blends crime, magic, romance, and self-discovery.” —Publishers Weekly

    About the Author
    Heather Blake is also the author of the Wishcraft Mysteries, including The Good, the Bad and the Witchy.

    Most helpful customer reviews

    16 of 16 people found the following review helpful.
    A Delightful New Series!
    By Kuzlin
    "A Potion to Die For" is first in the Magic Potion series by author, Heather Blake, also known for her Wishcraft series. Carly Bell Hartwell, owner of a magic potion shop, lives in the town of Hitching Post, Alabama. The story opens with her making a mad dash to her shop, trying to avoid a crowd of customers chasing her down for one of her love potions, because of the latest divorce forecast from her neighbor. However, when she finally makes it to her shop, she finds the dead body of one of the town's lawyers, Nelson Winston, clutching one of her potion bottles. When rumors of poison starts circulating town and her regulars avoid her, Carly realizes she is going to have to solve this mystery herself. Of course, this means coming into close contact with ex-boyfriend, Dylan, recently returned to town and working as investigator for the Darling County Sheriff's Office. The story moved along at a nice pace, as Carly gets involved in solving not only Nelson's murder, but also the local embezzlement case he was last trying to resolve. I really loved this story rich with interesting twists and turns, as well as madcap characters that include her three aunts nicknamed the Odd Ducks; her mother, who runs one of the two competing wedding chapels in the town; her cousin, Delia, owner of Till Hex Do Us Part, a mystically themed gift shop featuring hexes, the dark side to Carly's healing potions; and the other zany town characters. I am looking forward to the next book in this series. Disclosure: I was provided an ARC of this book in exchange for an honest review.

    8 of 8 people found the following review helpful.
    Great new series
    By Tarri
    I'm just a little envious of Heather's Blake real life friends, because she must be a real kick to hang around. I mean anyone who can make up characters like Carly Bell Hartwell, her over-the-top quirky family, hunky ex-fiance' cop, and her married to the town minister best friend, must be able to find the fun no matter what the circumstances.

    Carly is the owner of a magic potion shop in Hitching Post, Alabama. When Carly find a local lawyer dead on the floor of her shop, clutching one of her potion bottles, she goes from being a popular town healer to suspect number one in the minds of the town folk. As she works her way through all the clues and suspects, she finds that she may not be over the broken engagement and that Dylan may be back in town to take up where they left off.

    Heather Blake (aka Heather Webber) is one of my favorite cozy mystery writers. I'm pretty sure I've read all her books; starting with Nina Quinn, landscaper extraordinaire (admittedly my favorite), Lucy Valentine, matchmaker and finder of lost objects (and people), and Darcy Merriweather, with her newly discovered talent of wishcrafting. They are all well written and you just never know who the culprit is until Heather is wrapping up the story.

    The Magic Potion Mysteries are definitely going on my TBR list and if you like cozies, you're going to love Heather.

    13 of 15 people found the following review helpful.
    Heather Blake has cast a spell over me with this delightful read!!
    By Cheryl Green
    Opening her shop, Little Shop of Potions, Carly Bell Hartwell finds the dead body of lawyer Nelson Wilson on the floor. Everyone thinks Carly gave him a bad potion. This is ruining her business as a healing witch. Little Shop of Potions will have to close if Carly does not figure out who killed the lawyer. Carly will also have to deal with her arch nemesis – her cousin Delia. Will they be able to work together to save the family reputation?

    Things to ponder: How did Nelson’s body end up in Carly’s shop? Why was Nelson holding a potion bottle that would be used for a woman’s potion? Why was Nelson snooping around Aunt Margie’s home?

    Without touching a magic wand or drinking a potion, Heather Blake has cast a spell over me with this delightful read. There are plenty of suspects and red herrings to keep you turning the pages. I loved all the quirky characters that Heather has included. I found that once I started reading this book – I could not put it down. So, if you like a mystery with a magical touch, then you should be reading A Potion To Die For.

    FTC Full Disclosure - A copy of this book was sent to me by the author in hopes I would review it. However, receiving the complimentary copy did not influence my review.

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    Senin, 20 Oktober 2014

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    The word "apocalipse" comes from the Greek "apokalypse" which means "uncovering" or "revealing future events and things concerning the end of the times according to God."

    In the context of the book of Revelation, this means: "discover or expose to the light things, future events and conditions concerning the kingdom of God."

    We will study that such future referred to in this book is based since the year 4,153 (year of God) after the death of Jesus Christ and until the end of the world.

    You know that there are three eras or ages since the foundation of the world (this time is the time according to the God of the universe, neither according to the Gregorian calendar nor according to the scientists of the Earth):

    a) The Patriarchal era: Which covers from the beginning of the world until the age of the patriarchs Abraham, Isaac and Jacob (comprising the year 0 when Adam was banished from Paradise until the year 1,666, which is the year of the Great Flood).

    b) The Mosaic era: from the year after the flood (the year 1667, year of God) to the birth of Jesus the Christ of Nazareth (the year 4,120, year of God).

    c) The Christian era: from the death of Jesus (the year 4,153, year of God to the present time, which is the year 6,132 since the eviction of Adam from Paradise).

    Jesus Christ of Nazareth reveals to his apostle John (when John was over ninety years old and was exiled to the island of Patmos) visions, prophecies and messages about the Apocalypse. I want to reiterate the definition of "prophecy" which comes from two Greek words together: "prophanai" "pro" means "before" and "phanai" means "talk" (talking about or communicating events, happenings, visions, predictions, conditions repentance messages and future events inspired by God through an intermediary called prophet, from the Greek "prophetes" which means "one who speaks to God." Note that God exists outside the dimension of time and space.

    Prophecy was the way of communication between God and man that existed during the time of the Old Testament (the old covenant of God with his people). The modern form of communication of today with God and man is through Jesus the Christ of Nazareth according to the books of the New Testament (It is the new covenant between God and his people). The very first of the prophets was Moses (his name means "the one who is removed or taken out of the water) and the last of the prophets of the Christian Bible was the apostle John (his name means" faithful to God) who wrote the Book of Revelation through visions and dreams on the island of Patmos under the inspiration of God.

    "Blessed is he that readeth, and they that hear the words of this prophecy, and keep those things which are written therein: for the time is at hand" (Revelation 1:3).

    • Sales Rank: #3754069 in eBooks
    • Published on: 2013-03-25
    • Released on: 2013-03-25
    • Format: Kindle eBook

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    Sabtu, 18 Oktober 2014

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    Embark on a journey of psychic awakening as you witness the wondrous, dramatic, and truly beautiful moments that have shaped Anysia Kiel’s life as a psychic medium. Her powerful story is filled with miraculous spiritual encounters and personal techniques for psychic development to help you reunite with your loved ones in spirit.

    As a young child, Anysia was terrified of the spirits she saw everywhere—in her bedroom at night, on buses and streets, and in graveyards. But when her grandmother’s spirit reached out to her, she gained the strength and courage to begin a journey of self-discovery that forever changed her life. By using her profound gift for spirit communication and energy healing, Anysia empowers you to build spiritual relationships with your own passed-on loved ones. Discover how to communicate with deceased family members and friends through detailed exercises and techniques. Discovering the Medium Within is your key to developing your psychic abilities and finding comfort, healing, and peace from spirits.

    Winner of the 2014 New England Book Festival Award for Spirituality

    Winner of the 2013 USA Best Book Award for New Age: Non-Fiction

    • Sales Rank: #619041 in eBooks
    • Published on: 2013-05-08
    • Released on: 2013-05-08
    • Format: Kindle eBook

    About the Author
    Anysia Kiel is lifelong medium who has been able to communicate with spirits, since she was a very young child. Her debut book, Discovering The Medium Within: Techniques and Stories From A Professional Psychic Medium, takes readers on a journey through mediumship.  Readers can tangibly experience spirit communication through the eyes, ears, and feelings of a professional medium.  The latter part of the book is a step-by-step guide to spirit communication, for those who wish to reach out to passed-on loves ones and friends.

    Anysia holds an MFA in creative writing and enjoys sharing information and exercises via her blog, Communicatingwithspirits, for people interested in learning more about mediumship development and healing. She is the founder of the Soul-Centered Healing Method ™ - a system of healing, which incorporates Divine light.  The healing method identifies and clears the spiritual and emotional root causes of illnesses, disease, trauma, and repetitive life patterns. Anysia created Soul-Centered Healing, a spiritual healing center in Toms River, NJ through which she provides healing sessions, classes, lectures, and events.

    Most helpful customer reviews

    7 of 7 people found the following review helpful.
    A refreshing book about the journey of life and death through the eyes of a medium
    By jane gajano-blythe
    If I hadn't started reading the book late at night, I would have finished it in a day. The author captures your full attention and is able to suck you in and experience the journey along with her. It is a story about an ordinary girl with an extraordinary gift which leaves you wanting more. Born with the ability to see and communicate with spirits, the author goes back in time to tell the story of her self discovery and journey to become the medium healer she is today. With moments of fear, death, laughter and humor, you are transported into a fascinating world beyond ours, one that was seemingly unknown, but now penetrable . At the end of the book, the reader is given methods to develop their own innate abilities to connect with the inner self and loved owns that have passed. Overall, a feel-good book that leaves you with a new sense of hope and enlightenment. I thoroughly enjoyed it and highly recommend it.

    5 of 5 people found the following review helpful.
    Discovering the Medium Within
    By Sheri Newton
    Discovering the Medium Within by Anysia Kiel is the story of how the author dealt with becoming a psychic medium, and perhaps the journey to becoming one, too. This book covers her personal stories, and also helps guide you to discover your own medium within.

    This book is filled with the author's personal experiences and discovery of her inner medium, but it is also a teaching tool for people dealing with the same type of paranormal activity. There are also very helpful chapters on meditation, psychic senses, how to contact your guides, communicating with passed-on loved ones, and space clearing.

    Discovering the Medium Within is a great read for anyone interested in the paranormal field. It would also make an excellent gift for someone struggling with spirits around them, to help guide them on what to do to control the situation. I definitely recommend this for anyone interested in the subject, and those who can see, hear, or sense spirits - or want to.

    * Thank you to the publisher of Discovering the Medium Within, Llewellyn, for providing me with a copy of this book for review. All opinions expressed are my own.

    2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
    Heart felt Story from a Gifted Medium
    By Bonnie Mota
    This book was an easy read that traces Anysia Kiel's journey of discovering her gift for Mediumship to using it to help others. The fact that both of her kids have the same gifts spurred Kiel into high gear to make sense out of it & to set boundaries with it. There are some simple exercises at the end that can be very helpful in tuning in the psychic senses we all have. Thanks for sharing your story!
    Bonnie J.

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