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The invisible hand of capitalism is broken. Economic and political forces are preventing markets from correcting themselves, and we're now living in an unprecedented age of oversupply.
Governments and central banks across the developed world have tried every policy tool imaginable, yet our economies remain sluggish or worse. How
did we get here, and how can advanced nations compete and prosper once more?
In this bold call to arms, economic policy expert Daniel Alpert argues that a global labor glut, excess productive capacity, and a rising ocean of cheap capital have kept the economies of the first world, and notably the United States, mired in underemployment and anemic growth.
Distracted by a technology boom and a massive debt bubble in the 1990s and early 2000s, advanced nations failed to assess the ultimate impact of the torrent of labor and capital unleashed by formerly socialist economies. After the financial crisis of 2008, the United States and Europe joined an already sclerotic Japan in dire economic straits. Today, as the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) and others poach jobs from Western Europe, the United States, and Japan, household incomes in the developed world continue to decline.
Many policymakers believe in outdated supplyside economic remedies. They miss the connection between global oversupply and the lack of domestic investment and growth. But Alpert shows how they are intertwined: We cannot understand the housing bubble and the financial crisis without appreciating how the rise of the emerging nations distorted the economies of rich countries. And we can’t chart a path for growth in the developed world without recognizing that many of these distorting forces are still at work.
The Age of Oversupply offers a bold, fresh approach to fixing the West’s economic woes through large-scale fiscal stimulus measures, investments in infrastructure, and an aggressive private debt reduction plan. It also delivers a vigorous challenge to proponents of austerity economics.
- Sales Rank: #599148 in eBooks
- Published on: 2013-09-26
- Released on: 2013-09-26
- Format: Kindle eBook
From Booklist
Alpert, banker and progressive think-tank fellow, contends that the central challenge facing the global economy is the “oversupply of labor, productive capacity, and capital relative to the demand for all three.” We learn that restarting growth is blocked by oversupply, which is here to stay, and the author offers his guidelines for avoiding a future of economic stagnation and new crises. Amid his valuable insights, the author’s analysis of oversupply of cheap global labor is instructive. He cites a 2012 McKinsey study estimating that from 1980 to 2010, 1.7 billion new workers, mostly from emerging nations, were added to the global labor force, competing with workers in the U.S. where full-time unemployment remains high. With demand for goods and services “muted” since the 2008 financial debacle, the author reports that even the most profitable companies see little reason to invest in new equipment or hire new workers. Although not all will agree with Alpert, his ideas will contribute to important ongoing debates on the global economy. --Mary Whaley
Review
“Alpert does a magnificent job of analyzing the deeper underlying causes of our economic troubles.”
—Liaquat Ahamed, author of Lords of Finance
“A fascinating new book.”
—Martin Wolf, The Financial Times
About the Author
DANIEL ALPERT is founding managing partner of investment bank Westwood Capital, LLC. He is widely quoted in the business media and was featured in the Academy Award-winning documentary Inside Job. Alpert is also a fellow in economics of the Century Foundation, the United States’ oldest policy think tank. He lives in New York.
Most helpful customer reviews
59 of 61 people found the following review helpful.
Poor title, fun book
By Athan
A better title for the book would have been "Everything Daniel Alpert understands about the world economy."
The author is educated, informed, open-minded and appears extremely well-read. Also, significantly, he comes with no ideological baggage and no axe to grind. This is really what he thinks. He is not advocating a bunch of solutions that would make him better off or advance his status in his field or anything like that.
He identifies "oversupply" as the biggest problem we face at the moment. In short, there's a good billion people in the world who have joined the world economy but they are prone to save rather than spend. The governments of their countries invest the proceeds of their sweat in providing credit to the west, which then spends the borrowed money on the goods they make.
This is not controversial. Bernanke discussed the global glut of savings in 2005, a full eight years before this book came out. What is controversial is that the author thinks this is the most important thing happening right now on the planet. Maybe he's right, but if he is he should discuss why in the book. The book's opening chapter goes a long way toward establishing this problem of oversupply, but that's it.
Then the book becomes a laundry list of often very interesting things the author has figured out for himself through reading books and papers and through discussing with people he knows.
In no particular order, the author (among many other things):
1. Does his own version of Krugman's "End this Depression Now"
2. Explains very persuasively that Quantitative Easing is past its sell-by date
3. Bravely criticizes the Rubin/Summers/Clinton success with the deficit as serendipitous and the conclusions that stem from it as misguided
4. Summarizes damn well what's wrong with the Eurozone
5. Obliterates the libertarian / tea party / plutocratic view as self-serving
6. Explains that printed dollars are far from worthless (the IRS won't take pesos)
Also, he provides a list of proposals to help the US economy:
1. The government should urgently invest borrowed money to upgrade the dilapidated infrastructure.
2. Medical care reform should focus on resolving the split between those who pay and those who benefit.
3. Education reform should tackle the mounting student debt.
4. The bankruptcy taboo should be broken when dealing with banks. We need more, controlled, Lehmans.
So there you have it. None of the solutions really relate to the alleged main theme of the book, which is oversupply.
I sympathize IMMENSELY with the author, because he spares no punches. Nobody who is remotely partisan in nature will finish this book feeling like he did not get attacked at some point. But the main thesis is not developed adequately. Here in the UK the manufacturing industry was hollowed out in the 1970's, in the US in the 1990's and everywhere else in the west somewhere in between. China did not do this. US debt has been rising for decades, in a process (and with consequences) outlined by economists from Fischer to Minsky with no help required from the developing nations. The problem of poor demand (the mirror image of oversupply) was first linked to capitalism more than a century ago by Hobson.
For this book to be a significant addition, it needs to go beyond what others have done, and this it fails to do. There is no "inventive step" here, no new addition to the body of knowledge.
More to the point, we refer to 2007- today as the "financial crisis." When I picked up a book with the title "The Age of Oversupply" I was expecting the author to tell me why this is not a financial crisis, why it was something else, and I would expect among his proposals a way to tackle oversupply.
I learned tons of things reading this book and I gained an appreciation of the author as a very intelligent and reasonable man, but I've found absolutely nothing here I did not already know about oversupply and how to deal with it. Indeed, I found the "anti-mercantilist" bits of the book to be the most poorly argued points made in these 255 pages.
Regardless, this was informational, entertaining and educational.
53 of 58 people found the following review helpful.
Important, Data-Based Thinking
By Loyd Eskildson
Investment banker Albert contends that one can't understand the housing bubble and financial crisis without understanding how emerging nations distorted economies of rich countries. The central challenge facing the global economy is an oversupply of labor, productive capacity, and capital. A November Bain & Company study observed: 'The rate of growth of world output of goods and services has seen an extended slowdown over recent decades, while the volume of global financial assets (worldwide assets in the shadow banking system grew from $26 trillion in 2002 to $62 trillion in 2007) has expanded at a rapid pace.'
In the late 1990s, cheap money began flooding the global economy, much of it coming from Asia as China and other ran huge trade surpluses and their rising middle classes and thriving corporations socked away savings. Easy credit set the stage for the real estate bubble and the financial crisis, allowed Americans to sustain a high standard of living with low-cost borrowing and ignore their declining competitiveness amid a growing surplus of global labor.
China blocked free conversion of its currency to preserve competitiveness and by year-end 2012 held over $3.3 trillion in foreign-currency reserves - mostly dollars. Its currency reserves totaled less than $250 billion in 2000. China's national savings rate grew from 37% in 1988 to 48% in 2005 to 53% of GDP in 2011. The U.S. rate is about 12%, Japan's now under 25%. At the same time, Brazil's reserves went from $33 billion in 2000 to $352 billion in 2011, Indonesia's reserves grew 5X, Saudi Arabia's from $21 billion to $595 billion (28X). Overall, foreign-currency reserves of emerging nations rose from around $700 billion in 2000 to nearly $7 trillion in 2012. Several export powerhouses in the developed world also piled up more cash - Japan's reserves tripled during the first decade of the 21st century, to over $1 trillion, and Germany's and South Korea's nearly tripled. During this same period, U.S. federal debt doubled to $10 trillion during the Bush presidency, and has since risen further to about $16 trillion, with foreign governments owning almost half of this debt.
U.S. state and local governments also took advantage of cheap money, borrowing over $1 trillion between 2000 and 2008.
Today the world has a market labor force of about three billion people, many in a position to compete directly for a wide range of jobs held by workers in the developed world. Nearly half live in China, India, and the former Soviet Union - doubling the free-market global labor supply in the last two decades. Indonesia, Brazil, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Mexico, and Vietnam have more recently brought another 450 million workers. Because many of these workers live in countries with insufficient social safety nets and pensions, they save far more than their counterparts in developed nations and haven't generated near the demand one might think.
There has also been a recent flood of more educated workers. In China alone, students graduating annually from college has risen 8X in the past 15 years, from 830,000 in 1998 to 6.8 million in 2012. In India, there were 390,000 Indian students in universities, not 1.5 million.
Oversupply is here to stay and a central obstacle to restarting growth. Cheaper credit through monetary easing doesn't yield much when cheap capital is already abundant. Major risks linger in banking sectors of the U.S. and Europe because reforms have not gone nearly far enough. Finally, the U.S. and Europe have a huge overhang of unresolved debt - on a scale no nation has ever before confronted.
Nearly half of China's population still live in the countryside, able and wanting to shift into more productive activities. An Asian Development Bank study estimates China's labor force will continue to grow until after 2020. India has an even bigger pool of untapped labor - 69% of its fast-growing population still live in rural areas, and half of all Indians are under 25. It's been estimated that 275 million new workers will enter India's labor force between 2000 and 2030. Indonesia's labor force is growing by 2 million a year, the Philippines is adding a million/year.
Alpert suggests a $1.2 trillion, five-year public investment program of infrastructure improvements to restart growth and lay the foundation for future prosperity - addition to the approximately $1 trillion already budgeted. (A recent World Economic Forum report ranks the U.S. #16 in quality of infrastructure.) A second recommendation - an aggressive effort to clear away unresolved debt. (Net debt can be reduced by increasing savings, but Keynes' paradox of thrift tells us that if both consumers and governments simultaneously spend less and save more, GDP will simply contract and the debt continue to be unsustainable.) Further banking reforms are needed to reduce risky behaviors and boost stability (eg. less leverage). (Household debt climbed from 59% of 1996 GDP to 99% in the first quarter of 2009, while financial sector debt rose from 59% of GDP to 123%.
The U.S. has two additional obstacles - runaway costs for higher education and health care. (U.S. healthcare is the world's most expensive, by far - consuming 18% of GDP vs. #2 Switzerland at 12%, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan at 8%, and Singapore at 4%). Alpert offers suggestions for these problems as well.
Meanwhile, almost 70% of jobs created in Q2 2013 and 60% of all jobs in the first half of 2013 were created in the three lowest-wage sub-sectors (eg. hamburger flippers, barmaids, temps, garbage men, and Walmart associates) of the economy, paying an average of only $15.80/hour, about $3/hour vs. unemployment etc. benefits. Further, about half these jobs have been part-time jobs. Inflation-adjusted wages have been falling for nearly 15 years, yet equities are on a 'sugar high.'
Bottom-Line: Alpert's book directly confronts the 250-year-old ideas of Adam Smith, developed in an era of global undersupply with very limited international trade. Serious and complex issues have recently resulted from erroneously continuing to believe 'invisible hands' will solve today's problems of oversupply in an age of massive international trade via uncoordinated and largely unregulated actions of selfish individuals and firms. 'Fighting the last war is not a path to success' - that's what got us into this mess.
4 of 5 people found the following review helpful.
Important book, but maybe the wrong solution.
By John Nagle
It only takes about 17% of the US workforce to make all the physical stuff - that's agriculture, construction, manufacturing, and mining combined. There are no major shortages of any buyable thing in the developed world. It's a great achievement. That never happened before in all of history. This ought to be great. It's not working out. So what's wrong?
As Alpert points out, because it doesn't take that many people to make all the stuff, there's not enough personal income to buy all the stuff. Alpert thinks the problem is oversupply, not lack of personal income. In some sense, this is backwards, but it's traditional economic thinking.
Alpert sees the right problem. His proposed solutions aren't too helpful, but at least he's on the right problem. Piketty's "Capital" doesn't get this at all.
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